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Jason

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #375 on: July 29, 2021, 12:06:13 am »
Vaccinated people are protected very well against breakthrough infections with the original Coronavirus, as well as the alpha (UK) variant. But vaccinated people are testing positive for the delta variant and some governments are reconsidering mask mandates. Is anyone confused? This may be a long post, but it will explain my understanding of the science behind this.

The measles vaccine is a "sterile" vaccine, meaning that once vaccinated, one will never get measles. It is like a layer of shellac. Measles is a respiratory virus, possibly the most infectious one we know of. However, it requires some transmission through the blood to cause an infection, and antibodies are readily available in the blood, which prevents an infection from being established.

The coronavirus is different. It causes its infection in the lungs, so does not need to go into the blood. Lung antibodies (IgA) are not like a layer of shellac. Typically it takes the immune system 7-10 days to begin to mount an antibody response against a novel (never before seen) infection, by which time there is a much bigger fight and significantly more damage has already taken place.

It takes the original coronavirus an average of 6 days to produce enough new virus to become positive on a PCR test, what we might call the incubation period. At this point the infection is destroying lung tissue.

The vaccine works by priming the immune system so that if the coronavirus gets into the lungs, the antibody production goes into high gear right away, so that by day 6 (which is when the original coronavirus would have become positive on a PCR test) the virus has been wiped out. Minimal damage has occurred. No PCR test will ever test positive. They likely never knew that their bodies were fighting off the coronavirus, but this is not a "sterile" vaccination like with measles.

There are two big differences with the delta variant than the other corona viruses. 1. It has a much shorter incubation period of 3.7 days to be positive on a PCR test rather than 6 days. 2. It produces over 1200 times more viral particles at the time it is first detected. 3.7 days might not be enough time for the already primed immune system to wipe out this enormous viral load, so some vaccinated people are going to test positive. They might become infectious to others. This might even be enough viral load for children to become infected and infectious.

But since the vaccinated people's immune system is primed, the immune response starts working very fast and they still have very high levels of protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death. Even with the delta variant so prevalent, and some vaccinated people testing positive, the unvaccinated are still over 99% of those who are being hospitalized and dying. Vaccinations are still highly recommended.

Because the delta might cause vaccinated individuals to have a mild case, they might still be infectious to others. Therefore masking of vaccinated individuals might make sense when indoors in areas of high community transmission. It is better to avoid the virus than to have to rely on one's immune system fight it off.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2021, 12:43:08 am by Jason »
 
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Taalcon

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #376 on: July 29, 2021, 08:28:20 am »
Thanks, Jason.

It's frustrating and maddening how many see the news about the variant, hear new advice and guidelines for managing it, and then without any thought or research, just declare, "This doesn't make any sense, they just keep changing their stance. We should just ignore this, it's all politics".

Maybe if this information was presented in an easy-to-watch video and narrated by one of their favorite news anchors or politicians, we might actually be able to make some progress in containing this.

As it stands, those who have been diligent in inconveniencing themselves to follow safety protocols and guidelines for the past year+ will once again continue to do so, and those who have not will continue to not do so, thus keeping the problem going, and also at the same time trying to make it harder for others to be able to implement policies that will lead to further mitigation. Utah (and other states) have passed a state law outlawing schools to have mask mandates, even as key local counties within those states are trying to implement them to follow protocols and guidelines.

It's just all so, so frustrating.
 
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N3uroTypical

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #377 on: August 02, 2021, 10:07:42 am »
As it stands, those who have been diligent in inconveniencing themselves to follow safety protocols and guidelines for the past year+ will once again continue to do so, and those who have not will continue to not do so, thus keeping the problem going, and also at the same time trying to make it harder for others to be able to implement policies that will lead to further mitigation. Utah (and other states) have passed a state law outlawing schools to have mask mandates, even as key local counties within those states are trying to implement them to follow protocols and guidelines.

It's just all so, so frustrating.

Let me start by saying I get it.  It can be incredibly frustrating when humans don't behave in ways you want them to behave.  In ways someone thinks they should behave.  In ways someone thinks they would behave, if only they were smart enough, or educated enough, or mandated through government legislation enough, or peer pressured enough.  I spend way too much of my life, frustrated by the behavior of other people.

That said, I've been following the ins and outs of deadly pandemics from a hobby-prepper perspective, for three decades.  And while I have certainly not avoided frustration at human behavior, I haven't been surprised by anything I've seen in the last 20 months.  Back in the mid-'90's, I was reading folks who specialize in how viruses move through human populations.  They already knew what I'm guessing lots of folks still need to accept: Public policy can only accomplish so much.  Peer pressure can only go so far.  Humans will act like humans - you can bet your life on it, and the lives of your loved ones. 

And that means whenever some deadly pandemic shows up, you'll have a wide range of reactions.   Some folks will occasionally need to add a capful of bleach to their bath water before they can relax.  Some folks will say to themselves "if only people would X more and Y less, we would save lives".  Some folks will peer resentfully over their masks and through their windows, at members of the public who are Not Behaving Appropriately.  Some folks will mock random strangers for wearing the nanny-state's mouth diaper, and get themselves tossed out of the Chipotle.  Some folks will say "If I'm sick I'll stay home, and if I die I'll die", and not give it a second thought.  Human reactions will always be a range.  And through it all, politicians will act in ways that enhance their political power, and increase their odds of winning the next election.  When the cameras are off, their behavior will also follow human behavior.  My always-growing list of hypocritical left-leaning politicians, who fight for public health mandates, and then participate in activities which openly violate their public comments, belongs in the political thread.  But even their behavior proves the point - public policy can only do so much - it's true even if you're a public policy maker.

Yep, Humans will act like humans - you can bet your life on it, and the lives of your loved ones.  And you should bet your life on it.  As I keep having to remind myself, when I get frustrated at human behavior that shouldn't surprise me, I'm wasting time and energy.  I might as well be one of y'all that think we're only one step away from humans altering their human behavior.  Just one better health order, one more easy-to-watch video, one more popular celebrity showing up on TikTok to urge people to X, and then suddenly humans won't act like humans any more, and we'll end the pandemic, and everything will be fine.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2021, 10:09:35 am by N3uroTypical »
What-about-ism is pointless. I like to think most people's responses to such arguments would be, "Yup. That person, who happened to wear the same political jersey I do/did, was totally wrong on that, too."
-Taalcon
 
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Hobbes

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #378 on: August 02, 2021, 12:15:13 pm »
My opinion that absolutely no one asked for: the FDA should remove the emergency use authorization (making it just approved), every entity that can should require vaccinations, and the CDC should stop pretending it's the center for disease control and realize what it's actually good at is to act as a clearinghouse for research and free us up to have an actual disease control body.

A mask you have to wear all the time in public, indoor spaces for months (and let's face it, maybe longer?) is way more invasive than one to two shots, and pretending that it's not is admitting you kind of agree with the anti-vacc arguments (pre and post covid). France of all places required vaccines for a lot of activities and there was a huge outcry, but also an enormous percentage of their population that had been refusing to get vaccinated got or is getting vaccinated.

And the arguments against approving the vaccine seem dumb too. It will be approved in September now that we've made it a high priority? Ignoring the insanity that it wasn't already a high priority, if we're going to approve it in September, why not approve it now? Is it safe and everyone should get it, or is it not? If the former why are we waiting? If the latter, then why aren't we telling people that? And if the answer to either or both questions is: "public perception" then we should pick up our socks and boots and go home because, what the heck? Do we actually have any evidence that we have even the slightest clue what "public perception" will mean or be or do? Everyone has guesses, but who cares? If the science actually says it's safe then we should do that and start implementing vaccine requirements. If it's not safe then we should tell people. This is like the dumb: "maks might save you but we're worried we won't have enough so we'll just tell me that they don't work or give confused messages on them and then no one will trust us ever again and we can abandon the high-ground following the science" all over again.

Not that I'm emotional about it or anything...
 
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Hobbes

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #379 on: August 02, 2021, 12:17:18 pm »
Also, I've been meaning to tell you, NT: thank-you for being in the vaccine trial. I'm glad so many people volunteered for it (including all the follow-up testing and what not) so that I could get vaccinated. I got a different one (J&J, and then got the Pfizer as a booster) but that's immaterial.
 
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Palmon

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #380 on: August 02, 2021, 04:11:21 pm »
Hobbes, I have heard rumor that a booster of Pfizer might be suggested for those who had the J&J. What was your experience? Any type of reaction at all?  Was there any problem at the pharmacy (or wherever) when you told them you already had the J&J or is this just becoming a common thing to do?
 

Hobbes

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #381 on: August 02, 2021, 04:34:55 pm »
They will not and can not give it to you if you have had another vaccine, and despite mounting evidence that the J&J is good against Delta, but not as good as the mRNA, and that the single shot variety can be significantly improved (as good as or better than the full course of the mRNAs) by a booster: it is not recommended by the CDC and thus can not be issued. So, sadly, I had to lie. Which is not really my bag, but seemed (and seems) worth it. You can either lie and say you haven't had a shot, or lie and say you've had only your first shot (of either Pfizer or Moderna) but it requires a lie. I don't know if there's anyway to check but I don't think anyone is, or issuing consequences if they do (not even sure what the absolute worst they could do is, but I imagine something?)

In terms of side effects, I had a mildly sore arm for 2 days, and about 24 hours after I got the shot, I was just totally wiped out for 2-3 hours. This is very similar to the side effects I had with the J&J.
 

Roper

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #382 on: August 03, 2021, 12:44:11 am »
It can be incredibly frustrating when humans don't behave in ways you want them to behave.  In ways someone thinks they should behave.  In ways someone thinks they would behave, if only they were smart enough, or educated enough, or mandated through government legislation enough, or peer pressured enough.  I spend way too much of my life, frustrated by the behavior of other people.

I have no problem with people behaving like idiots. Until they hurt other people or put them in danger. Especially if those other people are my family members and friends. Then I have a big problem with their behavior.

In other news, I see that more employers are starting to require vaccinations. Good.
Education is not preparation for life; education is life itself. - John Dewey
 
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N3uroTypical

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #383 on: August 03, 2021, 11:10:23 am »
I have no problem with people behaving like idiots. Until they hurt other people or put them in danger. Especially if those other people are my family members and friends. Then I have a big problem with their behavior.
Same.  But what does that have to do with not getting the vaccination?  (Yes, this is a trick question meant to bring lots of discussion.  I wanna watch people try to walk through it, and maybe point some things out.)

Quote
In other news, I see that more employers are starting to require vaccinations. Good.
I'm in full support of incentivizing the shot, Kroeger handing out gift cards when you get a shot, employers handing out money to employees willing to prove vaccination.   That sort of thing.  I am less excited about required vaccinations, but I understand the reasoning.  And at the end of the day, we lost the Obamacare fight, and have zero chance of winning a fight over what employers and private property owners can enforce on their own property.  And no, such things are not hipaa violations unless someone screws up the recordkeeping.
What-about-ism is pointless. I like to think most people's responses to such arguments would be, "Yup. That person, who happened to wear the same political jersey I do/did, was totally wrong on that, too."
-Taalcon
 
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Jason

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #384 on: August 03, 2021, 12:36:46 pm »
Libertarians generally believe that the right to punch a fist stops at the tip of someone else's nose. Spreading communicable diseases when there is an effective means to not spread it is punching someone else in the nose. Defiantly not getting vaccinated and then going about society with immunocompromised people, like the elderly, those with cancers, etc, is the same as wildly swinging one's arms through the air around people who are unable to duck.
Quote
Hobbes wrote: They will not and can not give it to you if you have had another vaccine, and despite mounting evidence that the J&J is good against Delta, but not as good as the mRNA, and that the single shot variety can be significantly improved (as good as or better than the full course of the mRNAs) by a booster: it is not recommended by the CDC and thus can not be issued.
As the immune response progresses the body develops slightly different antibodies. B cells that produce more specific antibodies for the target antigen move forward, and B cells that are less specific are eliminated. A booster enhances that specificity even more, as well as enhancing the permanence of the T cells.

From what I have read, the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines target slightly different spots on the spike protein. If they are different enough, this means that a second dose from a different vaccine would not enhance specificity, but might instead create a new antibody response. So now someone would have the equivalent of 2 first shots rather than a first and second shot.

It is unknown if this "broad spectrum" approach is better than the "more specific" approach. From my understanding, if I were getting a different vaccine, I would want it to be more specific for a new variant. If I am going to sacrifice the enhanced specificity of a booster, then I would want it at least to be more tailored for the current strains that are circulating. 

Some countries are doing experiments by mixing different vaccines, so we should have some answers to the effectiveness of mixing vaccines within the next several months.
 
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N3uroTypical

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #385 on: August 03, 2021, 01:31:54 pm »
Spreading communicable diseases when there is an effective means to not spread it is punching someone else in the nose. Defiantly not getting vaccinated and then going about society with immunocompromised people, like the elderly, those with cancers, etc, is the same as wildly swinging one's arms through the air around people who are unable to duck.

What do immunocompromised people have to do with getting the COVID vaccine?

Here's what the CDC says about it: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html
Quote
The currently FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines are not live vaccines and therefore can be safely administered to immunocompromised people, including people with HIV infection or other immunocompromising conditions or people who take immunosuppressive medications or therapies. Although COVID-19 vaccine efficacy is unknown in these groups, immunocompromised people might be at increased risk for severe COVID-19, and the potential benefit of COVID-19 vaccination outweighs the uncertainties.

Immunocompromised people have the same choice as anyone else - get vaccinated or not.  For those who choose not to, that's like people who can't duck, walking through a public park, where people are holding a "wildly swinging our arms through the air" convention.

The principle of agency dictates that folks with a choice get to own the consequences of their choices.   Immunocompromised people who "don't wanna" or "are afraid to" get vaccinated, are the folks making the choice about whether they can duck or not.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2021, 01:34:43 pm by N3uroTypical »
What-about-ism is pointless. I like to think most people's responses to such arguments would be, "Yup. That person, who happened to wear the same political jersey I do/did, was totally wrong on that, too."
-Taalcon
 
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Jen

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #386 on: August 03, 2021, 03:44:40 pm »
My 10-year-olds don't have a choice and at least partially  have to rely on others to keep them safe.
 
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Jen

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #387 on: August 03, 2021, 03:45:50 pm »
I'm trying not to get caught up in media-driven hysteria, but what I'm hearing about the lambda variety has me a little freaked out.
 
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Jana at Jade House

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #388 on: August 04, 2021, 12:49:55 am »
I personally know of a case where steroid treatment caused low immune response. While it  might be safe for immunocompromised to take the jabs, it seems not so sure what the response will be. Hence the booster discussion.
In the meantime time, I will gladly mask so I am not a vector for the less fortunate.

This is not virtue signalling. This is part of my covenant to help hands that hang down.
Yes, I imagine it feels like imposition to some.
But for me, personally, I worry more about standing at the judgement bar trying to defend myself. seriously eternal stuff.
 
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Jason

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #389 on: August 04, 2021, 09:03:14 am »
Immunocompromised means that their immune systems may not mount an immune response. They remain vulnerable despite being vaccinated. Thus others should be vaccinated to protect the immunocompromised.
 
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